Turkey on Edge as Israel’s Regional Strikes Raise Fears of Escalation
Istanbul, Turkiye – Israel’s recent strikes on Qatar have sent shockwaves across the Middle East, heightening tensions with Ankara and raising questions about Tel Aviv’s broader regional ambitions.
Just hours after the attacks, pro-Israel voices began pointing at Turkiye as a possible next target. Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, warned that Ankara should not rely on NATO for protection. Israeli academic Meir Masri echoed similar sentiments online, declaring: “Today Qatar, tomorrow Turkey.”
Ankara hit back strongly. A senior adviser to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan used unusually harsh language, calling Israel a “Zionist dog” and warning that peace would only come after its downfall.
Rising Anti-Turkish Rhetoric
For months, pro-Israel outlets have painted Turkiye as Israel’s “most dangerous enemy.” Commentators have labeled Ankara’s influence in the Eastern Mediterranean a growing threat and criticized its role in Syria’s post-war rebuilding.
In response, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan suspended trade and economic ties with Israel in August, underscoring Ankara’s frustration with what it sees as Israel’s expansionist agenda.
“Turkiye increasingly feels that Israeli aggression has no limits and enjoys American backing,” said Omer Ozkizilcik, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council.
The strikes on Qatar further deepened doubts in Ankara about Washington’s commitment to NATO allies. Despite Qatar being a “major non-NATO ally” of the US, Washington offered no visible pushback against Israel’s attack—raising questions over whether America would truly defend Turkiye in a crisis.
Netanyahu’s “Greater Israel” Vision
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has openly embraced the idea of a “Greater Israel.” In August, he confirmed his support for a vision some Zionists believe includes modern-day Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan.
Turkish officials warn that this vision is not just rhetoric but a roadmap for regional domination. “Israel wants weak and divided neighbors,” Fidan told Al Jazeera, accusing Tel Aviv of fueling instability across the Middle East.
In recent weeks alone, Israel has struck Gaza, the occupied West Bank, Yemen, Syria, and even a humanitarian flotilla off Tunisia.
Cyprus and Syria at the Heart of Rivalry
Analysts say tensions between Israel and Turkiye are most likely to erupt first in Syria or the Eastern Mediterranean.
Cem Gurdeniz, a retired Turkish admiral, warned that Israel’s military buildup in Cyprus—alongside Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration—looks like an “offensive encirclement strategy” designed to contain Turkiye’s Blue Homeland doctrine, which asserts Turkish sovereignty in surrounding seas.
Meanwhile, Israel is pushing for a fragmented, federal Syria. Turkiye, however, supports a strong, centralized government in Damascus, setting the two countries on a collision course.
“The first flashpoints will likely be in Syria’s airspace and territorial disputes at sea,” Gurdeniz cautioned.
Controlled Rivalry or Looming Conflict?
Experts stress that while both sides recognize the dangers of direct confrontation, the rivalry is deepening.
“Israel’s threat to Turkiye is less about conventional war and more about targeting Turkish interests indirectly—in Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Caucasus,” said Andreas Krieg of King’s College London.
According to Krieg, Ankara’s strategy will be to expand its air defense and intelligence capabilities, forge closer ties with regional partners like Qatar, Jordan, and Iraq, and maintain dialogue with Washington to avoid isolation.
Still, as Netanyahu doubles down on reshaping the Middle East and Ankara draws its red lines, many fear the uneasy standoff could soon escalate into open confrontation.