Nepal Political Crisis: PM Oli Resigns After Deadly Protests as India Watches Closely
Nepal has become the third South Asian nation in recent years to witness a violent uprising that toppled its government, following political turmoil in Sri Lanka (2022) and Bangladesh (2024).
Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli stepped down this week after nationwide protests spiraled into violent clashes, leaving more than 20 people dead. The unrest began after the government imposed a controversial social media ban, sparking outrage across the country.
Protests Turn Violent in Kathmandu
Demonstrators stormed Nepal’s parliament and torched the homes of several politicians. In response, the government declared a nationwide curfew, while the army was deployed to restore order.
The scenes in Kathmandu bore striking similarities to the upheaval that forced Sri Lanka’s president into exile in 2022 and the unrest that shook Bangladesh last year.
Why Nepal Matters to India
For New Delhi, instability in Nepal carries unique significance. Beyond historic cultural and religious ties, Nepal shares an open border of more than 1,750 km with five Indian states: Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, Bihar, and West Bengal.
An estimated 3.5 million Nepalis live or work in India, enjoying visa-free travel and employment rights under a special 1950 treaty. In addition, around 32,000 Gurkha soldiers from Nepal serve in the Indian Army, strengthening deep people-to-people links.
India also accounts for a major share of Nepal’s trade, with annual bilateral commerce valued at $8.5 billion, primarily in food and fuel supplies.
India’s Response to Nepal’s Crisis
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed grief over the loss of life, calling the violence “heart-rending.” Writing on X, he urged for peace and stability, saying:
“The stability, peace, and prosperity of Nepal are of utmost importance. I appeal to all my brothers and sisters in Nepal to support peace.”
Modi also convened an emergency security meeting to assess the situation, reflecting Delhi’s concern over instability on its northern frontier. Analysts note that India was caught off guard, much as it was during Sri Lanka’s sudden collapse in 2022.
Strategic and Security Concerns
Experts warn that Nepal’s political unrest has serious strategic implications. Retired Major General Ashok Mehta noted that the Western Theatre Command of China lies just across Nepal, making the Himalayan nation a crucial buffer state for India.
With China and India both vying for influence in Kathmandu, every shift in Nepal’s politics reverberates across the region. Oli’s resignation, just a week before a planned visit to Delhi, has added to the uncertainty.
A Fragile Calm and an Uncertain Future
Although calm has tentatively returned to Kathmandu, protesters remain angry at all three major parties:
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Communist Party of Nepal (CPN–UML) led by Oli
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Nepali Congress headed by Sher Bahadur Deuba
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Maoist Centre led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda”
India has long maintained ties with all three factions. However, with widespread public anger, it remains unclear what kind of administration will emerge — and whether it will satisfy the demonstrators.
Border Tensions and Old Disputes
Relations between India and Nepal have faced strain in recent years. In 2019, a dispute erupted after India released a new political map including territories claimed by Nepal. Kathmandu responded with its own version, intensifying tensions.
More recently, Oli raised objections with Beijing after India and China agreed to reopen trade routes through the Lipulekh Pass, a territory Nepal also claims.
Engaging Nepal’s Youth
Experts argue that India must not only manage diplomatic ties but also engage directly with Nepal’s young population, who feel betrayed by their political class. Offering scholarships, fellowships, and more job opportunities could strengthen goodwill and prevent further alienation.
Regional Challenges for India
The Nepal crisis comes at a time when India’s relations with its neighbors are already strained:
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Bangladesh: Relations tense following Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster.
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Pakistan: Ties remain at a low point.
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Myanmar: Locked in a civil war.
Analysts caution that India’s broader geopolitical ambitions depend on ensuring a stable and secure neighborhood.
“India has taken its eyes off the neighbourhood due to its great power ambitions. But to achieve that, you must first secure your own backyard,” says Maj Gen (Retd) Mehta.