Ukraine’s Two-Pronged Strategy Targets Russia’s Fuel Supplies and Military Gains
Ukraine’s coordinated military and economic strategy is beginning to show results, with Russia facing mounting fuel shortages and declining export revenues.
Over the past week, Ukraine has intensified its drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure, crippling production and worsening shortages across several regions. At the same time, Russia has made limited battlefield gains, capturing a handful of villages, but at a heavy cost in manpower and equipment.
Russia Feels the Strain of Drone Strikes
On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted the impact of Kyiv’s strikes on Russia’s energy sector.
“The most effective sanctions are the fires at Russia’s oil refineries, terminals, and depots,” Zelenskyy said. “Russia’s war runs on oil, gas, and other resources.”
That same day, Ukrainian drones disabled a processing unit at Russia’s second-largest refinery in Kirishi, knocking out nearly 40% of its capacity. Although Moscow claimed it intercepted 361 drones, the scale of attacks suggests many more targets were hit.
Industry sources told Reuters that the refinery was forced to operate at just three-quarters of capacity, producing far less diesel and fuel oil than in previous years. Two days later, Ukraine struck the Saratov refinery, a facility directly supplying the Russian military.
So far in 2025, Ukraine has hit at least 10 major refineries, leading to widespread shortages. Russian newspaper Izvestiya reported that fuel scarcity has spread across 10 regions and republics, including Ryazan, Saratov, Rostov, Nizhny Novgorod, and even occupied Crimea. Many petrol stations have been forced to shut down after weeks without deliveries.
According to Ukrainian military officials, Russia may have already lost 20% of its refining capacity due to drone strikes.
Ukraine Tightens Military Discipline
While Russia pressed forward with limited advances, Ukraine responded with a tough stance on military discipline. Russian troops captured the villages of Sosnovka and Novonikolayevka in Dnipropetrovsk, along with Olhivske in Zaporizhia, after weeks of grinding offensives.
In response, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi dismissed two officers overseeing the 17th and 20th army corps for failing to hold their positions—signaling a stricter policy against retreat.
Since 2024, Ukraine has employed tactical withdrawals designed to inflict high casualties on advancing Russian forces. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia seized nearly 1,910 square kilometers (737 square miles) of Ukrainian land between May and August but suffered about 130,000 casualties—an average of 68 losses per square kilometer.
Syrskyi’s firings suggest Ukraine may no longer tolerate even minor territorial losses without accountability.
Heavy Fighting Along the Front
President Zelenskyy reported that Russian forces are taking “significant losses” in Kupiansk and Dobropillia, two of the most intense battle zones. Meanwhile, Ukrainian defenders are pushing forward near Sumy in northern Ukraine, bringing fighting closer to the Russian border.
Across the eastern front, Ukraine continues to rely on a strategy of attrition, aiming to exhaust Russia’s manpower while crippling its ability to resupply fuel and ammunition.
A War Fueled by Oil
Ukraine’s two-pronged strategy—military resistance combined with strikes on Russia’s fuel infrastructure—appears to be reshaping the battlefield.
“The Russian war machine will only stop when it runs out of fuel,” Zelenskyy said at the Yalta European Strategy Meeting in Kyiv. “Putin will be forced to stop when he feels the resources for war are truly running out.”
With widespread fuel shortages, refinery shutdowns, and rising casualties, evidence suggests Ukraine’s plan is starting to work—pressuring Russia both on the battlefield and at home.