Two Years On: Can Peace Talks Reverse the War in Gaza and Return Hostages?
After two years of relentless conflict, a fragile window of opportunity has opened: a chance to halt the devastation in Gaza and secure the return of Israeli hostages, both living and deceased.
Yet, that chance is far from guaranteed. Whether Hamas and Israel will seize it remains an open question.
A Haunting Anniversary
These peace talks begin on the exact date two years after the violent break in 2023 — the October 7 attacks — when Hamas launched a raid that killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapped 251 hostages. Israeli estimates hold that approximately 20 hostages are still alive, while the remains of 28 others are awaiting return.
Israel’s military response has been cataclysmic: the vast majority of Gaza’s infrastructure is in ruins, and more than 66,000 Palestinians — many of them women and children — have been killed. Independent observers and Gaza’s own health ministry (still linked to the remnants of Hamas administration) warn those are undercounted.
On both sides, the appetite for an end to the war is growing. In Israel, war fatigue is widespread. A majority of Israelis now reportedly favor a deal that secures the hostages’ release and ends the conflict. Many reservists, some of whom have served long, brutal tours, simply want to return to civilian life.
In Gaza, over two million Palestinians endure a humanitarian catastrophe — squeezed by bombings, starvation, and what many aid groups describe as a man-made famine caused by restrictions on aid.
Changing Dynamics in Hamas
The Hamas that carried out the October 7 attacks no longer exists in the same form. Its leadership and military structure have been heavily degraded. What remains is more of an urban guerrilla force, fighting amid the rubble, attempting to survive rather than dominate.
Hamas appears ready to concede some power. Reports suggest it’s prepared to yield authority to technocratic Palestinian administrators. It may even submit to relinquishing or dismantling heavy weaponry. But it still seeks to preserve enough force to protect its supporters and maintain leverage against its internal critics — especially those in Gaza who blame Hamas for triggering this destruction.
While Hamas likely won’t admit it publicly, it also hopes to emerge from any deal with capabilities intact — enough to fulfill its name: the Islamic Resistance Movement.
Israel’s Stakes — and Netanyahu’s Challenge
Israel, meanwhile, wants to dictate terms of surrender. But the mere fact that serious negotiations are unfolding gives Hamas more leverage than seemed possible even a month ago.
Earlier, Israel launched an airstrike on a Doha building where Hamas leaders were reportedly meeting to discuss a peace proposal from Donald Trump. Those strikes failed, and the leadership escaped. One target, Khalil al-Hayya, now heads the Hamas delegation at talks in Sharm el-Sheikh, despite the loss of his son in the strikes.
For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, survival is at stake — politically and personally. He aims to maintain power, dodge corruption charges, win upcoming elections, and avoid being remembered as the leader who presided over Israel’s deadliest civilian losses since the Holocaust.
Netanyahu has repeatedly promised “total victory,” which he defines as the hostages’ return, Hamas’s destruction, and Gaza’s demilitarization. If he cannot deliver that, he will struggle to frame this war as anything other than a pyrrhic conflict.
Behind the Scenes: Mediators and Leverage
Hamas and Israel won’t meet face to face. Instead, Egypt and Qatar are mediating, with the United States playing a powerful influencing role — and possibly a decisive one.
The framework for negotiations currently rests on a 20-point peace plan promoted by Donald Trump. It is ambitious, but incomplete: it offers a framework, not a final solution. It doesn’t resolve the future status of Gaza, the West Bank, or broader Palestinian statehood.
Netanyahu, reluctant to loosen control, has repeatedly sidestepped elements of Trump’s plan that hint at Palestinian independence. Trump, however, forced him to publicly issue a statement apologizing to Qatar — part of the delicate horse-trading required to keep all regional players engaged.
The Big Question: Will Hamas Exchange Hostages for Territory?
One of the chief sticking points is how the hostage exchange might unfold. Hamas has reportedly agreed in principle to return hostages in exchange for certain Palestinians jailed by Israel and Gazans detained without trial — but it seeks guarantees Israel will withdraw and end the war.
Qatar may have convinced Hamas that Trump can secure those guarantees — allowing Israel to claim victory by repatriating hostages. But Trump is still invoking tough rhetoric, vowing full support for Israel to destroy Hamas if it refuses the deal.
Official U.S. statements assert it may take days to know if Hamas is serious. But the devil lies in the details. Trump’s plan is only the skeleton — filling it in will require painstaking negotiation over timelines, power sharing, military demilitarization, and reconstruction.
A Fragile Opportunity
Two years into the bloodiest chapter of Israeli–Palestinian conflict, the path to peace remains perilous. Any agreement must address immediate needs — ending the killing and restoring the hostages — while navigating deeper wounds: who controls Gaza, what role Hamas plays, and how Palestinian aspirations are realized.
Diplomacy will need to be bold and nimble. Skeptics see unlimited pitfalls: internal factions on both sides will resist. The lack of technical detail in Trump’s plan leaves ample room for contention. But the moment for breakthrough is here — perhaps the most promising since the war began.
If this window closes without agreement, the cycle of violence and suffering likely continues. The world watches, hoping the leaders on both sides have the resolve to reach peace before more lives are lost.