🇵🇰 Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions Deepen as Taliban Ties with Islamabad Collapse
The once-warm relationship between Afghanistan’s Taliban government and Pakistan’s military establishment has rapidly deteriorated, marking a dramatic reversal from the optimism that followed the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021.
At the time, Pakistan’s military and political leadership celebrated the Taliban’s victory in Kabul, believing it would usher in a new era of stability and cooperation. Islamabad saw the group as a long-time ally — one that would safeguard Pakistan’s regional interests and curb anti-state militancy within its borders.
However, just four years later, that vision has crumbled. In a striking development, Pakistan launched airstrikes inside Kabul this week, targeting what it said were militant hideouts — a move that underscores how far relations have fallen between the two neighbours.
From Allies to Adversaries
For decades, Pakistan’s powerful army and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) shaped the country’s Afghan policy. During the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan (2001–2021), Islamabad maintained a dual stance: it supported Washington’s military campaign while covertly harbouring elements of the Afghan Taliban and other insurgent groups.
Pakistan believed that when the Taliban regained power, it would be rewarded with a cooperative government in Kabul — one that would act as a buffer against India and keep militancy under control. Instead, Islamabad now finds itself battling a resurgent Pakistani Taliban (TTP) that operates from Afghan soil.
A Surge in Deadly Attacks Across Pakistan
Since the Taliban takeover in 2021, Pakistan has faced a dramatic surge in militant violence. More than 2,400 people — including soldiers and civilians — have been killed in attacks during the first nine months of 2025, nearly matching the total toll from the entire previous year.
Islamabad blames the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) for most of these assaults. The group, whose fighters are largely drawn from Pakistan’s tribal border regions, shares ideological and operational ties with the Afghan Taliban.
Pakistan had hoped that once a Taliban-led government took power in Kabul, the TTP’s sanctuaries would be dismantled and peace would return to its frontier areas. While some TTP militants did return to Pakistan, their presence did not lead to a reduction in attacks. Instead, the group has become bolder, demanding the reintroduction of Islamic law and the restoration of the former semi-autonomous status of the tribal belt.
Pakistan’s Growing Security and Political Strain
For Islamabad, this escalating insurgency has become a full-blown national security crisis. The country is also reeling from multiple other challenges: a sluggish economy, rising inflation, political instability, and heightened tensions with India — particularly after a military clash in May 2025.
Pakistan’s leadership views the Taliban’s unwillingness to act against the TTP as a betrayal. While Kabul insists that the TTP problem is an “internal matter” for Pakistan, Islamabad accuses the Taliban of turning a blind eye to cross-border attacks.
In 2022, shortly after taking power, the Taliban government attempted to mediate peace talks between the TTP and Pakistan’s military. The negotiations, which took place in Kabul, initially showed promise and resulted in a short ceasefire. But those talks eventually collapsed, reigniting hostilities.
Afghanistan’s Internal Struggles and Isolation
Inside Afghanistan, the Taliban government faces its own deep economic and humanitarian crises. With limited international recognition and heavy sanctions, the administration struggles to govern a war-torn nation on the brink of collapse.
So far, only Russia has officially recognized the Taliban regime, though several countries — including China, India, and Iran — maintain limited diplomatic ties. Most international aid remains frozen, pushing millions of Afghans into poverty and hunger.
Public institutions, from healthcare to education, are failing. The United Nations has repeatedly warned of a worsening humanitarian crisis as donor funding dwindles. Against this backdrop, a prolonged confrontation with Pakistan could worsen Afghanistan’s fragile stability.
A Friendship Turned Hostile
Today, both sides appear entrenched in their positions. While occasional ceasefires have been declared, mutual distrust runs deep. Islamabad now refers to the Taliban administration not as a government but as a “regime,” urging it to form a more inclusive leadership. Pakistani officials warn that cross-border strikes will continue if Kabul refuses to act against the TTP.
Pakistan’s military, confident after its recent conflict with India, believes it holds the upper hand. It has advanced weaponry, air power, and significant geopolitical leverage. Meanwhile, Pakistan hosts millions of Afghan refugees, a factor it can use as economic and diplomatic pressure.
For Pakistani leaders, Afghanistan’s current stance feels like ingratitude from a nation that benefited for decades from Pakistan’s support, shelter, and trade. But from the Taliban’s perspective, Pakistan’s actions are seen as heavy-handed interference — an affront to Afghan sovereignty.
Taliban Pushes Back Against Pakistan’s Narrative
Taliban spokesmen have rejected Pakistan’s allegations, framing the narrative as part of an “information war.” They accuse elements within Pakistan’s security forces of harbouring Islamic State-Khorasan (ISKP) fighters in tribal areas, claiming Islamabad is attempting to deflect blame for its internal failures.
Despite the rhetoric, the Taliban’s position is precarious. Afghanistan, a landlocked nation, remains heavily dependent on trade routes passing through Pakistan. The closure of key border crossings has severely hurt traders and deepened Afghanistan’s economic woes.
Militarily, the Taliban lacks advanced air defense systems or modern weaponry to repel Pakistani drone and jet incursions. A prolonged conflict could expose Afghanistan’s vulnerabilities and further isolate its leadership on the world stage.
The Path to De-escalation
Pakistan’s military continues to link its campaign against the TTP to its broader regional rivalry with India, accusing New Delhi — without concrete evidence — of supporting the insurgents. Islamabad expects the Taliban to decisively break ties with the TTP, but such a move seems unlikely.
The Taliban and TTP share deep ideological, tribal, and historical bonds that extend beyond politics. For Taliban leaders, turning against their counterparts in Pakistan could fracture their own internal unity and risk defections to extremist groups like Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP).
Despite these tensions, both nations have much to lose from an escalating conflict. Economic interdependence, shared ethnic ties, and regional instability make long-term hostility unsustainable. Yet, for now, both sides appear determined to assert strength rather than seek compromise.
Until mutual trust is restored, Afghanistan and Pakistan remain trapped in a dangerous cycle — one that threatens not only their bilateral relationship but also the fragile security of South and Central Asia.