Moldova’s Election Faces Unprecedented Russian Interference: A Battle Between Europe and Moscow
The streets of central Chisinau glowed with EU flags on Friday evening as Moldovans rallied in support of their country’s pro-European future. Chants of “Their weapon is money, your weapon is your vote!” echoed through the crowd, a defiant message against what many see as Moscow’s attempt to hijack the country’s democracy.
This weekend’s parliamentary elections could mark one of the most decisive moments in Moldova’s modern history. With police uncovering large-scale vote-buying, disinformation campaigns, and even plots of violent unrest allegedly linked to Russia, the stakes could not be higher.
Russia’s Shadow Over Moldova
Authorities in Chisinau revealed this week what they describe as election interference on a scale never seen before. Investigations point to Russian-backed efforts involving disinformation networks, financial influence, and attempts to destabilize the state through orchestrated protests.
Dozens of men have already been detained after traveling to Serbia for training, including in handling weapons and riot tactics. Officials warn this was part of a broader plot to spark unrest following the vote.
For opposition parties, however, claims of Moscow’s involvement are dismissed as political theatre. Critics argue that the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) is preparing the ground to annul results should it lose.
But since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moldova has shifted sharply toward the European Union. Now, evidence suggests the Kremlin is investing heavily to pull the country back into its sphere of influence.
A Nation at a Crossroads
Moldova, sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, declared independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Last year, it formally launched EU accession talks alongside Ukraine, signaling its clearest step away from Moscow’s orbit.
Prime Minister Dorin Recean has described these elections as nothing short of a “final battle” for Moldova’s future.
“There is constant pressure from Russia,” he said during the final rally in Chisinau. “They are spending the equivalent of more than 1% of our GDP on propaganda and false messages aimed at overthrowing our government.”
A recent BBC investigation exposed a disinformation network spreading anti-PAS content online. The network was linked to Ilan Shor, a fugitive Moldovan oligarch now living in Moscow. While Russia’s embassy in London denied involvement, Moldova’s government insists the evidence is undeniable.
Fear and Hope in the Campaign
The PAS campaign has leaned heavily on warning voters of the dangers of Russian influence. Flyers promise EU membership within four years, increased European investment, and greater global recognition. On the reverse, however, the imagery turns grim: bombed Ukrainian homes, warnings of war, and portraits of opposition leaders under the slogan “Say no to Putin’s candidates.”
While some accuse PAS of fearmongering, Recean insists the warnings reflect real risks. “This is exactly the choice Moldovans face today,” he said.
Life Beyond the Capital
Beyond Chisinau’s Soviet-era apartment blocks, life in rural Moldova paints a different picture. In Cricova, a wine-producing town, families gather in the square as children play. Many here, however, express frustration with stagnant wages, poor infrastructure, and underfunded schools.
One mother, earning around £100 a month in a factory, says the rising cost of living has left her disillusioned. “I don’t know who to vote for,” she sighed. “They all promise, then do nothing.”
For many, survival has meant emigration. Moldova’s diaspora has grown so large that their votes abroad could tip the balance in Sunday’s election.
The Opposition’s Vision
The opposition remains divided but united in one message: PAS cannot be trusted. Former President Igor Dodon, leader of the Socialist Party, openly embraces closer ties with Russia. His office features multiple portraits of Vladimir Putin, alongside photos with Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron, which he says reflect his “balanced” politics.
Dodon dismisses accusations of Russian interference as propaganda. If elected, he promises to resume gas imports from Moscow, slash energy costs, and resist EU sanctions on Russia. “Why not?” he asks. “If Hungary and Slovakia can do it, so can we.”
He frames his agenda as pro-Moldovan rather than pro-Russian, focusing on economic benefits rather than ideology. But he warns of street protests if PAS claims victory, declaring: “If they say they’ve won, we’ll show it’s a fix. We will defend our win.”
Moscow’s Advanced Interference
Security officials, however, maintain that the threat is real and larger than ever. Police Chief Viorel Cernăuțeanu described the Russian campaign as “one of the most advanced interference operations we’ve ever seen.”
He estimates Russia spent more than $100 million attempting to sway last year’s elections and may be spending three times that amount this year. Unlike past attempts involving envelopes of cash, these operations now rely on cryptocurrency transfers, making them harder to trace.
“For Russia, Moldova remains part of its old imperial borders,” says John Lough of the New Eurasian Strategies Centre in London. “Bringing a pro-Kremlin government to power would be a symbolic victory against Europe and a strategic foothold near Ukraine.”
The breakaway region of Transnistria, where Russian troops are still stationed, adds another layer of complexity. A Moscow-friendly government in Chisinau could embolden Russia to use the region as leverage against Ukraine.
A Dangerous Game
Perhaps the most alarming revelation is the alleged plot for violent unrest. More than 100 men trained in Serbia were preparing to storm police lines and seize weapons, officials claim. Serbian police have arrested two suspected organizers, with Moldova pointing to possible involvement by Russia’s military intelligence service, the GRU.
“This is bigger than anything Europe has seen before,” Cernăuțeanu warned. “We are working around the clock, but Russia will try every method possible to achieve its goals.”
The Choice Ahead
For Moldovans, Sunday’s election is more than a political contest—it’s a decision about identity, security, and the future. Will the country continue its path toward EU integration, or will Russian influence pull it back into Moscow’s orbit?
Tamara, a 60-year-old voter, put it simply: “We chose the path to the EU. I don’t want to go backwards. That’s too frightening. I’ve already lived through that.”
As the nation heads to the polls, Moldova finds itself at the heart of a geopolitical struggle with consequences reaching far beyond its borders. The outcome will not only decide who governs but also whether Europe’s eastern frontier can resist Russia’s grasp.