UNSC Sanctions Vote on Iran Likely to Fail as Tehran Warns of Ending Nuclear Deal with IAEA
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is preparing for a high-stakes vote that could determine whether sweeping international sanctions against Iran are reinstated. At the heart of the dispute is Tehran’s nuclear program, long viewed with suspicion by Western powers, and the future of a fragile agreement between Iran and the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Russia and China Push for Delay in Sanctions
The vote, scheduled for Friday, will consider a resolution put forward by Russia and China aimed at delaying the reimposition of sanctions on Iran. The resolution seeks a six-month extension before any action is taken, giving more time for negotiations to try and salvage the nuclear deal.
However, diplomats close to the discussions have suggested that the measure has little chance of passing. The United Kingdom, France, and Germany — collectively known as the “European Troika” — have accused Iran of violating the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the landmark nuclear agreement designed to prevent Tehran from developing atomic weapons. Their opposition makes it highly unlikely that the Russian and Chinese resolution will succeed.
If the resolution fails, a “snapback” mechanism built into the JCPOA will automatically trigger at midnight GMT on Saturday. This would see the return of sweeping UN sanctions, including an arms embargo, global asset freezes, and strict limits on materials that could be used for uranium enrichment, reprocessing, or ballistic missile development.
What the Sanctions Mean
Should the sanctions be reinstated, Tehran would once again face some of the harshest restrictions on the international stage. The measures include:
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An arms embargo prohibiting the sale or transfer of conventional weapons to and from Iran.
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Financial sanctions that freeze the overseas assets of individuals and entities linked to the nuclear program.
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Restrictions on nuclear materials and technology that could support uranium enrichment or reprocessing.
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Travel bans on specific Iranian officials and organizations connected to the nuclear program.
For Iran, already struggling under existing US sanctions and economic pressures, a reinstatement of global measures would be a significant blow.
Iran Threatens to End Cooperation with the IAEA
Iran has warned that if the UNSC moves ahead with sanctions, it will retaliate by ending its cooperation with the IAEA. Tehran had recently reached an agreement with the agency to resume inspections at nuclear sites that were previously damaged in Israeli and US airstrikes earlier this year.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued a stark warning on Telegram, stating that Iran’s commitments under the IAEA agreement would remain in place “only if no hostile actions are taken against the Islamic Republic.” He added that any move to reinstate snapback sanctions would be seen as such a hostile action, effectively terminating Iran’s cooperation with the agency.
Araghchi also criticized the European Troika for their stance, calling it “unjustified, illegal, and irresponsible.” According to Iranian media, he conveyed this message directly during a meeting with British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper on Thursday.
The Bigger Picture: Decades of Tension
Iran’s nuclear program has been one of the most contentious issues in international diplomacy for decades. While Tehran insists its program is for peaceful energy purposes, Western powers and Israel have long suspected it of harboring ambitions to develop nuclear weapons.
The JCPOA, signed in 2015 after years of painstaking negotiations, was supposed to resolve these concerns by placing strict limits on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. However, the deal began unraveling in 2018 when the United States, under President Donald Trump, unilaterally withdrew and reimposed heavy sanctions on Iran.
Since then, Iran has gradually scaled back its compliance, enriching uranium beyond the deal’s limits and restricting inspector access to key facilities. The European signatories have attempted to keep the agreement alive but have struggled to balance their commitments with US sanctions pressure.
Rising Regional Tensions
The timing of the UNSC vote comes amid heightened regional tensions. In June, suspected Israeli and US strikes targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, setting back Tehran’s program but also fueling its determination to push forward. Iran has responded with threats to expand enrichment and bolster its ballistic missile program, moves that only deepen Western concerns.
Meanwhile, Tehran has been cultivating closer ties with Russia and China, both of which have expressed opposition to reimposing sanctions. Moscow and Beijing argue that sanctions would only push Iran further away from diplomacy and toward more aggressive nuclear development.
The Stakes for Iran and the World
For Iran, the consequences of renewed sanctions could be devastating. The country is already facing high inflation, a struggling currency, and widespread public discontent over economic conditions. Fresh sanctions would tighten the squeeze, further isolating Tehran from global markets.
At the same time, ending cooperation with the IAEA could leave the international community in the dark about Iran’s nuclear activities, raising fears of an unchecked nuclear program. That prospect is particularly alarming for Israel, which has repeatedly warned it will take military action to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
For the UNSC, the vote represents not just a decision about sanctions but a test of the council’s ability to address one of the most pressing security issues of the 21st century. A failure to act decisively risks undermining international non-proliferation norms, while overly punitive measures could collapse the last remnants of diplomacy.
Outlook
As the clock ticks toward Saturday’s deadline, all sides are bracing for impact. Unless the Russian and Chinese resolution somehow gains unexpected traction, sanctions appear almost certain to return. Iran’s threat to end its cooperation with the IAEA sets the stage for a new phase of confrontation, one that could have far-reaching consequences for Middle Eastern security and global stability.
For now, the world watches closely as the UNSC prepares to cast its vote — a decision that could define the future of Iran’s nuclear program and the fragile balance of power in the region.